Gaming: Can the WAC maintain its ATS Superiority?
NCAA Football Betting Lines
07/23/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Last season was quite a turnaround for the Western Athletic Conference, as the league's nine teams covered 21 of their 36 non-conference games (with two pushes) for an impressive 61% winning percentage.
This straight off the heels of a disastrous 13-22 mark in '08, a season in which the league finished 5-14 against the spread against Bowl Championship Series competition. This past year was the first since 2004 that the WAC ended a season above the .500 mark (8-7) versus BCS schools.
The question now becomes: Can the league continue its success, or will it falter with increased expectations? I fully expect the former to hold true, especially since only one team (Louisiana Tech) returns fewer starters than a season ago. In addition, the WAC is the only conference that returns every single starting quarterback.
As for betting within the league, favorites are only 55-52-1 over the last three years so it's difficult to follow specific trends on a weekly basis. However, Boise State has completed three straight years of winning records as a conference favorite with a combined ATS total of 15-8. Keep in mind, though, that 2010 will be the Broncos' final season in the WAC so the other eight squads might come at them with more intensity than in previous years.
Time now to take a team-by-team look at the league with predicted straight-up overall and conference records for those wagering on over/unders for total victories.
9) SAN JOSE STATE - The Spartans were an abysmal 1-9-1 ATS last season. They are 3-12-1 ATS in conference play the last two years.
Offense - San Jose State's offensive production has gone backwards each of the last four years, culminating with a 13.8 points per game average last season. The same cast of characters returns in 2010 along with the added pressure of learning new schemes. I don't expect much improvement, especially with trips to Alabama, Wisconsin and Utah to start the FBS schedule.
Defense - After giving up 21.6 ppg two years ago, the defense allowed 34.5 last year, the first season since '05 the unit was gashed for more than 30 ppg. In addition, only one team in the country allowed more rushing yards per game and that was 0-12 Eastern Michigan. Even with eight starters back, this is one of the worst defenses in the nation.
Prediction - There's only one way to go after a 1-9-1 ATS record so look for a few more covers, particularly in conference play. (3-9, 1-7)
8) NEW MEXICO STATE - The Aggies went 5-6-1 ATS last year but finished up with a 3-1 mark in their last four games. They are 2-7 ATS as home underdogs the last two seasons.
Offense - New Mexico State's offense was even worse than San Jose State's, finishing dead last nationally in scoring at an 11.5 ppg clip. However, there were signs of progress as the Aggies averaged 4.2 yards per carry in league play, up from 1.1 the season before. New offensive coordinator Mike Dunbar will rev up the passing game so look for the team to average close to 20 ppg in 2010.
Defense - The Aggies came into last year without their top six tacklers, and it showed as opposing rushers picked up 5.6 ypc. This season, six of the top eight tacklers return. Expect the defense to allow fewer than 30 ppg for the first time since '03.
Prediction - New Mexico State has not had a winning ATS record since '04, but that could change this season. (4-8, 2-6)
7) IDAHO - The Vandals were 7-5-1 ATS in '09 but went 0-5-1 over the final six games. They are 15-7-2 to the over since the start of the '08 season.
Offense - Only Auburn and Arkansas had a higher increase in scoring than Idaho last year. However, don't be shocked if the Vandals' 32.7 ppg mark takes a huge hit as the offense returns only four starters. In addition, the o-line brings back fewer than 20 career starts.
Defense - Despite reaching the postseason, the defense ranked dead last in the league in scoring, allowing 36 ppg. The Vandals were also 119th nationally in opponent third-down conversion percentage. Ten starters return this year so some improvement is expected. But remember, Idaho has allowed an average of 38 ppg in its five-year WAC history.
Prediction - Last season was the Vandals' first above-.500 ATS campaign since '02. Given that, I anticipate a giant tumble in 2010. (3-9, 2-6)
6) UTAH STATE - The Aggies went 8-3 ATS in '09. They are 16-8 ATS in WAC play and 14-5 as away underdogs the last three years.
Offense - Spring injuries to running back Robert Turbin and receiver Stanley Morrison will have significant ramifications for Utah State's offense. Not only do the Aggies lose their star tailback, but they will now be without five of their top six pass-catchers from a year ago.
Defense - This unit ranked seventh in league play last year in both scoring and total defense. However, 11 of the top 14 tacklers return and the team will now be in the second year of the new system.
Prediction - Quarterback Diondre Borel will not have as many weapons as he had a year ago, so don't expect another 3-0 ATS record in non-conference play. (3-9, 2-6)
5) HAWAII - The Warriors were an even 6-6 ATS last year but were 4-2 over the final six games. They are 3-1 ATS as road favorites the last two years.
Offense - The Warriors ranked seventh in the league in scoring last season, averaging only 23 ppg. Even though they finished first in league play in passing yardage, only Nevada and New Mexico State had lower completion percentages. Furthermore, with 16 fumbles in only 292 rushing attempts, they must do a better job holding onto the football.
Defense - For a unit that returned just one starter, it was an amazing achievement to finish fourth in league play in total defense. This season could be even better as seven starters come back, including the entire secondary.
Prediction - Hawaii will open the season 0-2 ATS with losses to both USC and Army. (6-7, 4-4)
4) NEVADA - The Wolf Pack finished 7-6 ATS last year, but went 4-0 to end the year. Chris Ault's club is an incredible 19-4 as a home favorite over the last six years.
Offense - Nevada was 0-4 SU in games that Colin Kaepernick threw at least 25 passes and 8-1 in the others. With nine starters coming back, expect another phenomenal season, particularly against the rest of the conference.
Defense - The Wolf Pack ranked last in the league in pass defense last year, and the secondary will once again be an area of concern with the loss of both safeties. Until the team figures out how to defend the pass, play the over (10-5 in the last 15 conference games).
Prediction - Nevada's style works well inside the WAC but not against the rest of the country as its 1-8 ATS mark in the last nine out-of-conference games points out. (8-5, 5-3)
3) LOUISIANA TECH - The Bulldogs went 7-4 ATS last year. They are 6-0 ATS as home underdogs the last three years, but 9-28-1 ATS off a SU loss in the last eight.
Offense - With head coach Sonny Dykes and offensive coordinator Tony Franklin in charge, look for Louisiana Tech to average over 30 ppg for the first time since '01. Four offensive line starters return to an attack that rang up 29 ppg a season ago, and this year's talent level has increased with transfers from both Tennessee and LSU.
Defense - With the coaching change that took place over the winter, it's important to keep in mind that defensive coordinator Tommy Spangler was retained. The defense allowed only 21 touchdowns last year, tying Boise State for the top spot in league play.
Prediction - Go with the over in each of Louisiana Tech's first four FBS games. (7-5, 5-3)
2) FRESNO STATE - The Bulldogs went 6-5-1 ATS in '09, but 1-3 in their final four games. They are just 2-10-1 as home favorites over the last four years.
Offense - Fresno State has always had solid rushing numbers so even with Ryan Mathews off to the NFL, the running game will not suffer as much as people might think. Tough-as-nails quarterback Ryan Colburn was impressive in his first season as the starter completing 61% of his tosses with 19 touchdowns. Look for even better numbers in his senior campaign.
Defense - Opposing league rushers averaged an amazing 6.7 ypc against Fresno State last season. However, that number should drop to below 5.0 if the defense can stay injury free. New defensive coordinator Randy Stewart did a fine job in '07, a year in which the Bulldogs' scoring average dropped a point despite only three returning starters. This year, seven come back.
Prediction - After playing seven road games each of the last two years, the Bulldogs get seven at home in 2010. (10-2, 7-1)
1) BOISE STATE - The Broncos went 8-5 ATS last season. They are 7-2 ATS in their last nine non-conference matchups, and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as road favorites.
Offense - Despite a shaky spring, Kellen Moore is still one of the top quarterbacks in the game. Throw in nine other returning starters to an offense that averaged over 40 ppg and the sky is the limit for the Broncos.
Defense - Only two starters returned to the front seven last season, causing the rush defense to allow over 4.5 ypc in league play. This year, all seven are back. It's hard to imagine the Broncos defense can improve after giving up just 17 ppg last season, but it could happen since the defense loses just two of 28 lettermen.
Prediction - Boise State is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games. Look for another outstanding season in 2010 both SU and ATS, beginning with a win and cover versus Virginia Tech. (12-0, 8-0)
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March Madness odds and printable March Madness brackets
With the field of 64/65 set, MySportsbook.com has the Florida Gators as the 4-1 favorite to successfully defend their National Championship. Men’s Division-1 College Basketball has not seen a team repeat as National Champions since Duke won back to back championships in ’91 & ‘92. After losing three out of four late in the season, the Gators are full of momentum as they won their last four games by an average of 18 points. Not surprisingly, right behind the Gators are the other three top seeds: Kansas 5-1, UNC 6-1, and Ohio State 7-1. Many consider Kansas to be the hottest team in the country, having won 11 straight. With Kansas, it is hard to ignore all of the early exits from the “dance” in recent years. With an impressive ACC Tournament, UNC ensured themselves the other top seed. UNC has about as much talent as any other team in the tournament but with a team that’s best players are primarily freshman and sophomores, could youth be a concern. Behind freshman sensation, Greg Oden, OSU will look to do what their football team failed to do just a few months earlier. OSU seems to have peeked at the right time, as they currently have a 17 game winning streak. Since the tournament field was expanded in 1985, there has never been an instance where all four #1 seeds advanced to the Final Four. It is obvious that each of the top seeds have the talent to make it through to Atlanta. But as everyone knows, when makes the NCAA Tournament so special are all of the spoilers and “Cinderella” stories that knock off the favorites on a daily basis.
Be sure to logon to MySportsbook.com to see check out all of the early lines and “March Madness” props. Also be sure to enter the “$10,000,000 Perfect Bracket Contest”. If someone has the skills to predict every winner, they will be set for life and walk away with $10,000,000. Even if no one can cash in on the Grand Prize, with a $35,000 guaranteed prize pool and a Mazda RX-8 to the first prize winner, Sportsbook.com’s bracket is a must for all “March Madness” fans.
MySportsbook.com’s odds to win the Championship and Regions:
| EAST | National Championship | Region |
| Arkansas | 300-1 | 50-1 |
| Belmont | 1000-1 | |
| Boston College | 100-1 | 40-1 |
| Eastern KY | 1000-1 | |
| George Washington | 75-1 | |
| Georgetown | 10-1 | 3-2 |
| Marquette | 100-1 | 40-1 |
| Michigan State | 100-1 | 25-1 |
| New Mexico St. | 500-1 | 200-1 |
| UNC | 6-1 | 6-5 |
| Oral Roberts | 500-1 | |
| Texas | 15-1 | 5-1 |
| Texas Tech | 200-1 | 5-1 |
| USC | 75-1 | 20-1 |
| Vanderbilt | 100-1 | 30-1 |
| Washington State | 40-1 | 15-1 |
| WEST | ||
| Duke | 50-1 | 10-1 |
| Florida A&M | 1000-1 | |
| Gonzaga | 200-1 | 40-1 |
| Holy Cross | 300-1 | |
| Illinois | 300-1 | 60-1 |
| Indiana | 75-1 | 40-1 |
| Kansas | 5-1 | 13-10 |
| Kentucky | 100-1 | 40-1 |
| Niagara | 1000-1 | |
| Pittsburgh | 40-1 | 8-1 |
| Southern Ill. | 50-1 | 12-1 |
| UCLA | 10-1 | 3-2 |
| VCU | 500-1 | 100-1 |
| Villanova | 100-1 | 40-1 |
| VA Tech | 50-1 | 15-1 |
| Weber St | 1000-1 | |
| Wright St | 1000-1 | 300-1 |
| MIDWEST | ||
| Arizona | 50-1 | 30-1 |
| Butler | 40-1 | 30-1 |
| Davidson | 300-1 | |
| Florida | 4-1 | 4-5 |
| Georgia Tech | 75-1 | 25-1 |
| Jackson State | 1000-1 | |
| Maryland | 30-1 | 6-1 |
| Miami-OH | 300-1 | |
| Notre Dame | 100-1 | 20-1 |
| ODU | 500-1 | 100-1 |
| Oregon | 40-1 | 6-1 |
| Purdue | 300-1 | 60-1 |
| Texas A&M CC | 1000-1 | |
| UNLV | 100-1 | 30-1 |
| Winthrop | 500-1 | 100-1 |
| Wisconsin | 15-1 | 7-2 |
| SOUTH | ||
| Albany | 200-1 | |
| BYU | 200-1 | 40-1 |
| Central CT St. | 1000-1 | |
| Creighton | 100-1 | 35-1 |
| Long Beach St. | 500-1 | 200-1 |
| Louisville | 40-1 | 10-1 |
| Memphis | 30-1 | 4-1 |
| Nevada | 75-1 | 35-1 |
| North Texas | 500-1 | |
| Ohio State | 7-1 | 6-5 |
| Penn | 500-1 | |
| Stanford | 200-1 | 50-1 |
| Tennessee | 100-1 | 20-1 |
| Texas A&M | 12-1 | 11-5 |
| Virginia | 75-1 | 18-1 |
| Xavier | 100-1 | 40-1 |
Field 100-1
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2007 online football betting Preview
My fellow Americans, as tempting as it may be to don the coat and HD-ready tie in order to deliver this State of the Game address before the cameras, I know better. As Brad Paisley sings on his latest album, "I'm so much cooler online."
The ideas for this annual essay to kick off the MySportsbook.com college football betting preview flowed like frat-house beer, which is to say they were cheap and spilled all over the floor. The 2007 season will be better than 2007, if only because there will be more of it. A year ago, the NCAA Football Rules Committee made two rule changes in the interest of speeding up the game. These changes went over like Kobe burgers at a vegan banquet.
To its credit, the rules committee rectified its mistakes. This season the clock once again will start when a kickoff is received, rather than when it is kicked, and the clock will not start so quickly on a change of possession.
However, kickoffs have been moved back five yards, to the 30, which will force more returns. (Thus forcing the clock to run. Clever, huh?) Special teams might decide a lot of games, because coaching strategy will come straight out of another new Paisley lyric (almost), I'd like to check you for kicks.
Paisley sings with a twang, which is why he's appropriate for this college football season. The sun coming up over the 2007 college football betting lines season rises from the south. It's a Southern football world. As the Southeastern Conference begins its 75th year, the power shift is noticeable.
Eight-figure budgets, glamorous settings -- and that's just for the head coaches. The SEC has four coaches who have won national championships -- the greatest aggregation of coaching know-how since Eddie Robinson dined alone.
Steve Spurrier, Phil Fulmer, Nick Saban and Urban Meyer have given lie to the idea that a conference championship game is too daunting a hurdle on the road to No. 1. In six of the past 10 seasons, the national champions played and won a conference championship game -- three of the six (Tennessee, 1998; LSU, 2003; Florida, 2007) from the SEC.
2007 College Football Betting Preview
There will be more of the same this season, if the preseason prognostications are correct. Six SEC teams are in the preseason coaches' poll, more than from any other conference. Only one conference has talent so deep that a team with 15 returning starters, including the best quarterback in the league, from an eight-win season is considered an afterthought. That may speak more to Kentucky's losing legacy than to the wisdom of the predictions, but there you have it. And seriously, keep an eye on Wildcats QB Andre' Woodson.
The reach of the South extends all the way to No. 1. Take a look at the team that is a consensus pick to win the national championship. The quarterback is from Shreveport. The best wide receiver is from Nashville. The top recruit is from New Orleans.
So what's the campus doing in Los Angeles? Hey, it is the University of Southern California.
USC lost two Pacific-10 Conference games a year ago, the first time that had happened in five seasons, and university officials withstood the urge to form blue-ribbon panels to unearth the cause of such a disaster. Instead, the Trojans gathered themselves and routed Michigan, 32-18, in the Rose Bowl.
USC's losses at Oregon State and at UCLA last year should have given pause to those who question the Pac-10's football prowess (such as, without naming names, L.M. from Baton Rouge). The league only got deeper this season; Dennis Erickson is taking over an Arizona State team that never quite got out of its own way under his predecessor, Dirk Koetter.
Erickson will resume his quest to become the first coach to win a national championship at two schools. Both he and Spurrier, now in his third season at South Carolina, returned to college football at schools with lower profiles than where they won their titles.
That isn't the case for the third coach looking for the national championship double. You may have missed this, but NASA reported the astronauts on the space shuttle last spring made contact with what can only be described as beings from another galaxy.
The leader of the aliens said, "We come in peace," followed by, "So how do you think Nick Saban will do at Alabama?"
The public is reacting to the new Crimson Tide coach as if he is the Barry Bonds of college football -- beloved at home for what his fans believe he is going to do, hated on the road for his intimidating attitude and for what his detractors believe he did (bend NCAA recruiting rules). I made this comparison from the dais at a charity dinner in Mobile, Ala., last month, and the chill that washed over me didn't come from the air conditioning.
Saban will attempt to prove that he can remake in Tuscaloosa what he built in Baton Rouge, much like another member of the national championship fraternity. Bobby Bowden is attempting to remake at Florida State what he built at, um, Florida State. Bowden rebuilt his offensive staff, bringing in four new coaches led by Saban's former offensive coordinator, Jimbo Fisher, to jump-start an offense that has been dead for a couple of years.
Las Vegas Sports Lines
The Atlantic Coast Conference is expected to show new signs of life, too. That is said with no disrespect toward last season's champion, Wake Forest, which provided one of the best story lines of 2007. The Demon Deacons begin this season in their customary position, overshadowed by the Virginia Techs, Miamis and Florida States.
It's not that Wake will find it difficult to duplicate its success in 2007 as much as the feeling that success engendered. Surprising success is the narcotic of sport. It never feels quite so euphoric the next time. Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese has figured this out. He refers to 2007, when a league looked down upon by fans and foes alike took three undefeated teams into November, as "Cinderella."
The fairy tale may be over, but the Big East has four genuine Heisman Trophy candidates in Louisville quarterback Brian Brohm, West Virginia tailback Steve Slaton and quarterback Pat White, and Rutgers tailback Ray Rice. Rutgers, as did Wake Forest and, of course, Boise State, proved last season that the have-nots in college football occasionally have quite a lot.
The Broncos' rousing 43-42 overtime victory over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl has raised the profile of all schools in conferences that don't get automatic BCS bids. This season, TCU and Hawaii are the preseason favorites to burst through the BCS doors and earn an at-large bid. The Warriors return 14 starters from an 11-3 team, including quarterback Colt Brennan.
Brennan not only broke the single-season record with 58 touchdown passes in 2007, but he also led Division I-A in passing efficiency (186.0). The senior is expected to contend for the Heisman Trophy, and neither his success nor the rise of his team should come as any surprise in the 2007 season.
After all, Hawaii is the southernmost team in the country.
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