Astros go for series win at Petco
Baseball Betting Lines
07/02/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Houston Astros shoot for a series win this afternoon over the San Diego Padres at Petco Park, where the two ballclubs will wrap up a four-game set.
Houston has won five of its last seven games, including two of the first three matchups with the Padres. In Wednesday's 7-1 victory, Carlos Lee, Geoff Blum and Kaz Matsui all drove in runs to pull the Astros within four games of the top spot in the National League Central division. Matsui ended with two hits and Darin Erstad scored a pair of runs for Houston, which has won seven of the last eight encounters with San Diego.
Houston also swept a three-game series from San Diego from May 8-10 of this season. Astros starter Brian Moehler pitched six innings of one-run ball and scattered four hits with four walks and eight strikeouts to pick up the win.
"It was more of a stress game, but they were down 6-1 so I didn't think I had to be perfect with everything," said Moehler. "I just tried to limit the amount of damage. We made some pitches when we had to and we made some plays when we needed to."
The Astros will hand the ball to Wandy Rodriguez on Thursday and he is 6-6 with a 3.35 ERA in 16 starts this season. Rodriguez is 1-0 in his last two stints since going 0-4 in five previous trips to the hill. He is coming off a no-decision against Detroit on June 26, when he yielded four runs and seven hits in six innings of a 5-4 triumph.
Houston has now won three of his last four starts. Rodriguez, who is 3-4 in eight road outings this season, defeated San Diego earlier this year on May 8 with eight shutout innings of five-hit ball. The lefty also struck out seven batters and issued no walks, improving to 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts in this series.
In five career games, four of which have been starts, against San Diego, Rodriguez is 2-2 with a 5.47 earned run average.
San Diego lost for the 12th time in 18 tries last night and didn't get much help from starting pitcher Walter Silva. Silva yielded six runs, three of which were earned, and five hits in four innings of work to absorb the loss.
Eliezer Alfonzo homered and Tony Gwynn added a pair of hits for the Friars, who were set back by a costly throwing error by third baseman Chase Headley with the bases loaded in the fourth inning. Headley fired an errant throw on a roller hit by Moehler and the bases were cleared for a 6-1 Houston lead.
"It comes down to one play," said Headley. "If I make that play at third then we have a chance. It's hard to battle back."
Padres All-Star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez was in the lineup yesterday after straining his right knee in Tuesday's win. He appeared in his 284th consecutive game and now sits 21 shy of Steve Garvey's franchise mark. He finished 0-for-3 with his major league-leading 64th walk Wednesday.
San Diego starter Kevin Correia has been the ace of the staff lately and will try to run his personal win streak to three straight starts tonight in the finale of this four-game series versus the Astros.
Correia has taken over as the top arm in the rotation with Jake Peavy and Chris Young sidelined because of injury, and has won two straight and four of his last five trips to the mound. Correia previously pitched on June 27 at Texas and held the Rangers to three runs in seven innings with a career-high nine strikeouts in a 7-3 victory.
The right-hander, who is 5-5 with a 4.23 ERA in 15 starts, also sports a 3-2 mark in nine home games this season. Correia will face Houston for the second time this season after not factoring in the outcome of a 5-4 loss on May 9 at Minute Maid Park. He allowed two runs and four hits in six innings, and is 0-0 with a 3.06 ERA in six career games (2 starts) versus the Astros.
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Before the New York Mets begin a critical three-game set in Philadelphia this weekend, they must first play a makeup game in the Keystone State against the Pittsburgh Pirates today at PNC Park. Today's contest was original
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Best Horse Betting Online
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined
Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.
"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."
Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)
According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.
As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).
Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.
Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at
17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.
*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007
New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers
By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.
"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."
While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."
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